Economic Development · 4 question types
Past paper frequency (2018 to 2024)
This topic accounts for approximately 8% of your exam marks.
Population structure, birth/death rates, and the economic consequences of changing population appear in Section B roughly every other paper; typically 6 to 8 marks.
The birth rate is the number of live births per 1,000 people per year.
The death rate is the number of deaths per 1,000 people per year.
Example — a country has 60 million people and 720,000 live births in a year.
Birth rate = (720,000 ÷ 60,000,000) × 1,000 = 12 per 1,000
The "per 1,000" convention exists because the absolute numbers (millions of births) are hard to compare between countries of different sizes. Per-1,000 rates make a small island and a continent directly comparable.
Both rates trend downward as countries develop. Death rates fall first as healthcare and nutrition improve. Birth rates fall later as women's education, contraception and the cost of raising children rise. The lag between the two creates a temporary period of fast population growth, which is the heart of the demographic transition.
Natural population change = births − deaths.
A positive natural change means the population is growing from within; a negative natural change means more people are dying than being born.
Net migration = immigrants minus emigrants over a period. A positive figure is a net inflow; a negative figure is a net outflow.
Net migration adds to or subtracts from the population independently of natural change. Some countries grow despite low natural change because of strong net inward migration (e.g. Canada, Australia in recent years). Others shrink despite positive natural change because emigration outpaces it.
Total population change = (births − deaths) + net migration.
Example — a country has 200,000 births, 180,000 deaths, 50,000 immigrants, and 20,000 emigrants in a year.
The population is growing because both natural change and net migration are positive.
The dependency ratio is the ratio of the non-working-age population (children plus elderly) to the working-age population, usually expressed as a percentage.
The working-age range is usually defined as 15–64. Dependants are everyone outside that range: under-15s and over-65s.
Example — a country has 30 million working-age adults, 15 million children, and 12 million over-65s.
A high dependency ratio means each worker supports more non-workers through taxation, family transfers, and pension funds. A high ratio is a burden on public finances.
The dependency ratio is a percentage / proportion, not a per-1,000 rate. Reporting it "per 1,000" loses the mark.